Quarterbacks and Defense

As the NFL season opens this week, let’s go back to some basics when it comes to handicap football: you win (and cover) with quarterbacks and defense. There really is no truer adage in football. The betting lines take these factors into account, and you can understand why. The offense revolves around the play of the quarterback, the only offensive player who touches the ball on every play.

Quarterbacks need to touch and make split-second decisions all the time to keep the offense moving. They also require leadership skills, catching ability on third and fourth downs, and even being asked to call plays or change calls instantly at the line of scrimmage based on what they see the defense doing.

A quarterback needs to know the system thoroughly and the team needs confidence in his abilities. I bring this up after watching the Steelers beat the Dolphins in Game 1. The line movement in that game was incredible, with Pittsburgh opening as a 6-point home favorite in the summer and falling to a pick ’em. The reason for the loss was the injury of QB Ben Roethlisberger.

However, this is where a good handicapper needs to use patience and intuitive skills. While Big Ben is an important part of the Steelers, it’s not EVERYTHING. Pittsburgh is, first of all, a team that runs. This is why I looked at QB Charlie Batch as reliable. He’s not as good as Big Ben, but he knows the system and the team went 2-0 in 2 starts last season when Big Ben got hurt.

In my pregame analysis, I wrote, “But is Roethlisberger’s loss really worth a full 6 points? No. He’s not a quarterback who puts himself in position to win the game, just to manage it. In fact, that’s the form”. all quarterbacks play in this system. The Steelers have won 15 of their last 18 home games and are completely underrated by the crowd that walks into this game. In the past, it was profitable to go against the Super Bowl winner in his first game, but that’s simply not the case anymore. Those teams have gone 4-0-1 ATS the last 5 seasons. Miami is just 5-11 on the road the last two years.”

I dealt to the Steelers and started the season with a good win and coverage. That’s where Part II comes in: Defense! Look at Super Bowl history and you’ll find teams with great defense that usually win it all. Those Bronco teams with John Elway were strong defensively, just like the Rams in 1999 (look it up, they weren’t all offensive). Defense was the cornerstone of the Patriots’ three recent titles. Tampa Bay’s No. 1 defense outscored the Raiders and their No. 1 offense, 48-21, in the Super Bowl (like a dog, no less), and the Steelers’ aggressive defense and attacking zone marked the en route to his title in February. In fact, Roethlisberger played poorly in the Super Bowl, but his great defense kept them going.

Pittsburgh’s defense was on fire Thursday as they outscored the Dolphins, dominating the line of scrimmage and intercepting two passes as Miami tried to rally. You can make a list of several teams that have had good quarterback play and no defense in recent years (Vikings, Rams, Titans, Chiefs), and teams that have had no quarterback but good defenses (Bears, Bucs, Redskins, Ravens).

But having both is a great advantage. Think about these things when you peruse the NFL games for September. Overall balance and good coaching are key, but reliable quarterback play and strong defenses are at the top of the NFL hit list, straight up AND against the number!