Pivotal Dynasty: The San Antonio Spurs and the Moneyball Theory

Most people believe that the “Moneyball” theory cannot work in the NBA due to the high maintenance of stars, individual talent, and sometimes the lack of a team concept. However, what professional sports demonstrate over and over again is that the reasons for team successes are sometimes overlooked. The “Moneyball” theory is a term conceptualized by Oakland A’s general manager Billy Beane that uses evidence-based research and sabermetrics to create a competitive team.

Now in the NBA, building a team with players with high field goal percentages can work to put points on the scoreboard, but players may lack skill on the defensive end. Rather, build a knowledgeable team with players who can excel on defense but lack offensive firepower. In other words, there has to be a good combination of offense, defense and teamwork. These statements should be nothing new to anyone looking to build a competitive team, but the one word I forgot to mention is “consistency.” Moneyball theory focuses on objective results but also preaches consistency and there is no other team in the NBA that has been more consistent than the San Antonio Spurs over the last thirteen years. The Spurs have racked up consecutive 50-win seasons and 4 NBA titles, but what is the formula for their success?

After 1996-97, the team enjoyed regular season success, but decided to change the team’s coaching philosophy from Bob Hill to Greg Popovich. Popovich had been in the front office as a general manager and saw that while the team was competitive, it lacked intensity and toughness. Throughout the league, Bob Hill’s coaching style was known as rigid and detail-oriented, akin to dictatorship, but Popovich believed the team’s approach should be more democratic and hold players accountable for their actions. In a cooperative setting, players must learn a system that maximizes each player’s abilities and not just the team’s win-loss record. In the 1997 draft, the Spurs drafted Tim Duncan, a Wake Forest All-American center out of Wake Forest to team with David Robinson. Duncan’s selection was very important because he initiated the team’s focus for years to come. Has anyone ever noticed that the San Antonio Spurs always seem to have a collection of the same type of players in their system? Penetrating guards who can knock down an open jump shot, shooting guards who can create their own shots, versatile forwards who can defend shooting guards but also possess a high career three-point percentage, flexible power forwards who can defend in the goal post will also stretch the defense on the perimeter and finally a center that can defend and score in the post. Plus, he duplicates three to five similar players coming off the bench. This formula was not created by accident; in fact, this strategy is why the Spurs are so consistent. From Avery Johnson to Tony Parker, Mario Elie to Manu Ginobli, Jerome Kersey to Robert Horry, David Robinson to Tim Duncan and other players, the Spurs have always focused on being built to last. For any NBA team, it would be easy to acquire the best free agent on the market during the offseason, but it’s also clear in the league that every time star players come to a new team, the philosophy is likely to change. Coach Popovich believes that “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it!” which is a simple sentence used for a complex system. Also, if you think Greg Popovich became an overnight success who got lucky with his own strategy, you’d be inclined to know that he graduated from the Air Force Academy with a degree in Soviet studies and almost went on a career in counterintelligence.

In addition to looking at the overall makeup of the Spurs team, you should also look at stats like the average age of players and player development, concepts that tie into Moneyball theory. Historically, every NBA champion team since 1999 has had an average player age of less than 29, except for the 1999 and 2007 NBA champion Spurs. To clarify, the 1999 Spurs played a shortened 50-game season, however they were thought to be a very experienced team that ultimately went 37-13 and lost just two games in the playoffs. The 2007 Spurs were also experienced, but were battle-tested and went on to sweep the final, four games to nil. The average age of the players on both teams was 30, but why is age so important? Most NBA analysts believe age and experience are important factors in a championship team, but players can also physically collapse during a playoff run. Also, younger and more athletic teams can sometimes overcome inexperience with high intensity. Therefore, a mix of players in a proven system can lead to positive results. The fact is that the Spurs are the only team since 1999 that has shown that you can beat an average 30-year-old not because of experience but because of their system. Also, whenever the average age of Spurs players seems to start to increase, they always get updated with similar but younger players. This strategy seemed inevitable after last season when the Spurs were outscored by the #8 seed but younger Memphis Grizzlies last season. In terms of player development, the Spurs developed Duncan, Ginobli and Parker from their rookie season to the superstars they are today. Additionally, the Spurs were one of the first teams in the NBA to purchase a developmental league team for the purpose of managing and developing players. Billy Beane and the Oakland Athletics used a similar approach in developing minor leaguers in MLB’s best farm system. Players would subsequently contribute to the team and then leave via free agency. Years later the strategy began to be copied by the rest of the league; most notably the 2004 World Series champion Boston Red Sox.

So I know you’re telling yourself that the Spurs are boring or too fundamental and play in a small market. However, if you’re a fan of a big-market team, think about the last time your team achieved 50 straight winning seasons without the help of a coveted free agent or a blockbuster trade or the fact that your team hasn’t won four NBA titles with a chance to win a fifth title in less than fifteen years? If you’re an NBA fanatic and realist, you should appreciate the San Antonio Spurs because even though the team isn’t the most popular franchise, it’s still the most respected.