Are Man Utd really a sure bet for the Premier League title this season?

This weekend the Premier League took a break to allow the FA Cup to continue the football season. Now that it’s over, and it wasn’t exciting, we can get back to business by asking the question: Will the Premier League really return to Man Utd?

The bookies seem to think so. Manchester United are currently as low as 1/2 to take the title this year, while Chelsea are 4/1, Liverpool a whopping 5/1, Arsenal as high as 40/1, while Aston Villa, a only three points from first place. they are an amazing 50/1.

And it’s easy to see why after they closed a nine-point gap in just one week to edge Liverpool out on top on goal difference.

Since the inception of the Premier League in 1992, they have been the most successful team in the UK, if not Europe and the world. They have won the league title 10 times in that time, have done the FA Cup double three times and the European Cup treble once.

Also, in that time, they have grown the business side of Man Utd, making it the biggest club in the world by turnover alone. This season has gotten over an indifferent start with a stronger team than the one that won the title last year, recording five straight wins since the draw at Tottenham on December 13.

But are people rushing to call the most open Premier League in two decades in favor of the perennial champions? There are still too many variables and too many inconsistencies to price Man Utd at 1/2 (£1 back for every 2 pounds you earn) as value.

This year there are five teams still with a good cry to win the title: Man Utd, Liverpool, Chelsea, Arsenal and Aston Villa.

All five teams have shown that they have the talent to win the title. In fact, all five teams have beaten at least one of their title rivals so far this season. And there are still eight games left in the top four: that’s 24 points to play for before you start talking about other teams.

There are some interesting statistics emerging from the Premier League this season.

While Liverpool seem to have the best record with just one league loss all season, they are still not at the top. But, it can be argued, Man Utd are only superior due to their ability to score in the last three minutes to turn defeats into draws and draws into wins.

In fact, Man Utd would be fourth behind Liverpool, Arsenal and Chelsea without any late goals.

We can take this fact in two ways: the fact that United scored late is the sign of a class team that has what it takes to win games, win titles when the chips are down. However, it is a sign of an inherent weakness. The facts suggest that it is the latter rather than the former.

The last five Premier League champions have not needed the late winner to the same extent in their arsenal. Man Utd last season won what was considered their least impressive title since 1992 and needed late goals three times to gain valuable points.

This is the most a title-winning team has ever needed. In fact, title-winning teams often suffer late goals instead of winning. Chelsea in 2007 and 2006, the kings of the 1-0 win, needed a late goal twice each season, and lost points for the late hit.

And the 2004 Arsenal side didn’t score a single goal in the last five minutes of any consequence. In fact, on several occasions he gave up points in the final minutes and still took the title by 11 points.

The numbers suggest, and memory supports the claim, that champions tend to be dominant throughout a game and generally have a lead going into the fourth quarter. It is the inferior teams that still need a late scorer.

Bookies are also pricing in a misnomer that has been doing the rounds among TV pundits for the past few weeks: Man Utd have the easier matchup. Sorry, what genius has shredded the match list on a master computer and decided that the champions have the easiest matchup? The mighty Alan Hansen and Andy Gray are the ones.

I’ve had a look and I’m not so sure.

Of course, with predictions like these, it all depends on the factors you decide to focus on, so my predictions are generally exposed to the same variables as Alan Hansen’s masterful math.

My take on the props (see below) is that there are a few teams outside of the top five that probably have a big influence on the fate of the title – it’s the same every year.

It is a matter of choosing which teams these are.

From what I’ve seen, and also from what I expect to happen in the last four months of the season, the four teams that are likely to have the most influence are: Fulham, Hull, Wigan and Man City.

Fulham are perhaps the history of the Premiership so far. They were expected to be struggling at this stage, but they have built a strong home record and just need to improve their away form to make a big impact in the Premier League. Their strength is in defense, conceding just 17 all season and just eight at home.

Each top five team has to play them: Aston Villa and Liverpool have to travel to Craven Cottage.

Regulars of my column will know that I started the season by telling my readers that Wigan are a team that won’t be worried about relegation this season, and are likely to be on the far right of the table fighting for honours. Most must have thought he was angry when they won just two of their first ten Premier League games. But now they sit in seventh place after winning six of seven since late November. They have had three defeats since the end of October and they have been away from home against Man Utd, Man City and Arsenal. All 1-0.

All the top five have to play Wigan, but Arsenal, Liverpool and Man Utd have to go to the JJB Stadium, where Wigan are unbeaten since October.

Hull are a bit out of sorts since their lightning start to the season, but they have shown their ability to surprise teams with their quick counter-attacking. They beat Arsenal at the Emirates, nearly upset Man Utd at Old Trafford and drew Liverpool at Anfield.

They travel to Aston Villa and Chelsea, but Liverpool and Man Utd must go to the KC Stadium, and there could be surprises there.

In the meantime, no one knows how much Man City will have spent by the time the January transfer deadline closes next Monday, but they have already chipped in enough to make a difference to their performances this season.

City may have failed to sign Kaká, but Dutch midfielder Nigel de Jong, left-back Wayne Bridge and West Ham’s Craig Bellamy are strengthened assets. With a chance in Europe out of the question this season, they can use the rest of the season to accommodate their new players, steer clear of relegation and make a statement about their intent next season.

What will make the matches against Arsenal (a), Aston Villa (h), Chelsea (h), Liverpool (h) and, in particular, Man Utd (a) are main objectives.

Arsenal does not have to play against Hull, but against Fulham (h), Man City (h) and Wigan (a).

Aston Villa Wigan (h), Man City (a), Hull (h) and Fulham (a)

Chelsea take on Hull, Wigan and Fulham at home, while traveling to Man City.

Liverpool travel to Wigan, Fulham and Hull, while entertaining Man City.

And, Man Utd play Hull, Wigan and Fulham away, and Man City at home.

The top five meet eight times (Arsenal 3, Villa 3, Chelsea 2, Liverpool 4, Man U 3:

Liverpool vs Arsenal

Arsenal-Chelsea

Manchester United v Arsenal

Villa-Chelsea

Liverpool-Villa

Manchester United v Villa

Chelsea vs Liverpool

Manchester United v Liverpool

By my calculations, Chelsea have the easiest matchup. They only have two games against other title contenders (home against Liverpool, away against Villa) and only travel to Man City between the dangerous teams.

Liverpool have by far the worst with four games against the opposition (home against Arsenal and Villa, away against Chelsea and Man Utd) and only have to travel to Wigan, Fulham and Hull.

Although Man Utd don’t have to play Chelsea again, they do have to face Liverpool, Arsenal and Villa at home. Of the four danger teams, they travel far to three of them and have a great Manchester derby against City on May 9.

Arsenal only have to play three dangerous teams, but if they are to win the title, it is in their hands with trips to Liverpool and Man Utd on the cards and a home game against Chelsea.

Verdict: Man Utd are not worth 1/2 and will have odds against them at some point before the end of the season. Chelsea (4/1) and Arsenal (40/1) are the real value. If Arsenal win their games against their rivals, they can close the gap and they have the easiest encounter.

Accessories:

Arsenal

Position: 4th; Points: 41; Games to play – 16; Price – 40/1

Everton

wham (h)

spurs

Sunderland(hrs)

Fulham(m)

WBA(a)

Blackburn(h)

Newcastle (one)

Manchester City (h)

Wigan

Liverpool (a)

boron (h)

Portsmouth

chelsea(m)

Manchester United(a)

Stokes (hrs)

 

astonville

Position: 4th; Points: 44; Games to play – 16; Price – 50/1

Play

Portsmouth

Wigan

Blackburn(a)

chelsea(m)

Stokes (hrs)

Manchester City(a)

spurs (h)

Liverpool (a)

Manchester United(a)

Everton (f)

wham (h)

Bolton(a)

Hull (h)

Fulham (a)

boron(a)

Newcastle (f)

 

chelsea

Position: 3rd; Points: 45; Games to play – 16; Price – 4/1

boron (h)

Liverpool (a)

Hull (h)

chalet

Wigan

Portsmouth

Manchester City(a)

spurs

Newcastle (one)

Bolton (h)

Everton (f)

W Ham (a)

Fulham(m)

Arsenal (one)

Blackburn(a)

Sunderland(a)

 

Liverpool

Position: 2nd; Points: 47; Games to play – 16; Price – 5/1

Wigan

chelsea(m)

Portsmouth

Manchester City (h)

boron(a)

Sunderland(hrs)

Manchester United(a)

chalet (h)

Fulham (a)

Blackburn(h)

Arsenal (hrs)

Helmet (a)

Newcastle (f)

West Ham

WBA(a)

spurs (h)

 

manchester united

Position: 1st; Points: 47; Games to play – 17; Price – 1/2

WBA(a)

Everton (f)

W Ham (a)

Fulham(m)

Blackburn(h)

spurs (h)

Newcastle (one)

Liverpool (h)

Fulham (a)

chalet (h)

Sunderland(a)

Wigan

spurs (h)

boron(a)

Manchester City (h)

Arsenal (hrs)

Helmet (a)